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Air Safety - Facts
 
Topic: Flights safety in commercial aviation
ALL aviation accidents (or serious incidents) are made by experts...
Right or false statements about flight safety
About CRM...
Years after years the picture unfortunately is the same...
A last but positive comment

Topic: Flights Safety about transport flight events

It means we are talking about accidents (or serious incidents) related to:
> Major airlines (Passengers, cargo)
> Regional airlines
> Charters
> Corporate
> Medevac
> Even Military transport flights
> Etc.
All leisure, training organization, and general aviation events are exclude, even though there is here, as well, a lot to do if not everything... I just made the choice to work here on transport aviation.


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ALL aviation accidents (or serious incidents) are made by experts...

> Experienced crews (more than 6000 hours flying time),
> Experienced crews (more than 1000 hours on the aircraft),
> Judged pretty good vocational by the other company crew members,
> (despite few exception) they were pretty well trained about the aircraft procedures,
> (despite few exception) they were pretty well trained about the company procedures,
> (despite few exception) they were strongly well trained to CRM,
> All were very motivated crews.

The question is: why the preceding criteria do not make possible to avoid accidents and serious incidents?


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Right or false statements about flight safety (Compiled by NTSB)

"Without a certain feeling to be infallible, a pilot could not exert his job"
Facts: 73% of the accidents in transport and 80% of all the air crashes blame the actions of all or a part of the crew.

"Captains are more experienced and consequently are those which make less errors"
Facts: In 80% of the accidents of 1978 to 1990, Captains was the Flying Pilot.

"Procedures will always make it possible to manage the lack of familiarity between crew members"
Facts: On 37 important accidents, 73% took place the first time the Captains and the FO flew together.

"When the situation is perceived as unusual by the Non Flying Pilot... he often believes that the Flying Pilot knows what it does!"
Facts: 83% of the human errors in the important accidents are the fact of defects of monitoring or questioning.

"Night flying is the best time to fly safely"
Facts: 30% of the important accidents took place during the night - and 13% of the examined accidents were at night.

"Pilots are sharper during takeoffs and landings than during other phases of flight"
Facts: 78% of the important accidents take place during either takeoff or the landing.

"Can a pilot make a mistake during taxi?"
Facts: The errors made during taxi have more consequences than those done during the other phases of flight. A study on the serious accidents shows that 80% of the errors during
taxi lead to an accident.

"First Officers are younger, sharper in piloting, and better communications procedures"
Facts: In the important accidents concerning a defect of communication, the FO carried out 69% of the communication errors, and more than 50% of the accidents involved FO during their first year of pilot (of transport).
 
"It is because the equipment gives erroneous information that the planes hit the ground"
Facts: 90% of the impacts with the ground involve crews not observing the procedures.

"Leveling off is one of the simplest manoeuvres"
Facts: 21% of the incident reports imply nonregards of altitude during climbs or descents; most took place within the 10 000 /11 000 ft layer.

"The Flight Management System (FMS) solves all clearance problems"
Facts: 48% of the errors with the FMS involve an error of trajectory follow-up during departure; 78% involve a bad coordination between the crew members. FMS errors have twice more chance to be notified by Air Traffic Control than by the crew member.

"Radio communications loss are always the result of serious breakdowns"
Facts: 52% of the losses of radio communications are the result of a misuse of
the radio equipment.

"Propellers or engines blast is never a problem when aircraft are far away from the terminals"
Facts: Practically half of the incidents due to propellers or engines blast occur on taxiways, engines test areas, and adjacent areas to the runways (usually not too busy areas).

"Pilots only very seldom let themselves to be pushed press, in a way to to forget procedures"
Facts: When pilots are in a hurry 63% of the errors are carried out during preflight, 34% during taxi, 80% are carried out during strong workloads, and 48% show clearance or trajectory respect default.

"There is no reason pilots should be responsible..."
Facts: Researches show that 96% of all the violations in flight, are from origin human...


o O o


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About CRM...

CRM was implemented in order to help crew working together during normal operations and NON normal operations as well.
But during accidents (or serious incidents):
> During most of the events CRM was poorly used...
> During some events, CRM was not used at all...
Today, some specialists are talking about "failure of CRM" (Reasons for the failure of CRM Training in Aviation, C. Johnson). Others think CRM did not removed errors from operations, and CRM training course are made in detriment of basic training's which are not always reached by pilots.
I think it is more sound to state that we reached the CRM limits (as it is performed nowadays). This means CRM must necessarily evolve. But still is necessary to be aware of it, and not to consider this training course (as I heard it too often) "just one... lawful obligation".

Lets conclude with the following numbers, showing the need for CRM (NTSB study regarding air carrier accidents):
> the 81% occurred when the Captain was the Pilot Flying (PF) and the First Officer was the Pilot Not Flying (PNF),
> 73% occurred on the first day crew was flying together, and
> 44% occurred on the first flight leg of the crew's first flight together.


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Years after years the picture unfortunately is the same...

Even with the significant improvement of the safety culture during the last decades, 2004 is yet a year with accidents, even though the number decreased slightly. If some seem to be satisfied with this light improvement, the reader letter published in the letters section on the 8-14 February 2005 Flight International issue summarize pretty well that 2004 is not such an impressive record regarding flight safety. A good example is probably the 14 October 2004 Pinnacle Airlines CRJ200 crash, during a ferry flight. The crew wanted to fly at the limit aircraft ceiling. They experience flame out on both engines. They would not be able to relight.

The years 2005 and 2006, are strictly similar, with the following examples:

  1. On 8 January 2005, an An-12B cargo crashed after departing from Entebe (Uganda).
  2. On 19 February 2005, a British Airways 747 flew from Los Angeles to Manchester on three engines only.
  3. On 7 April 2005, a China Eastern A340-300 scrapes its tail at Heathrow. Even though warned by air traffic control, the captain decided to proceed on... It seems luck saves the day again, as a reader wrote (10-16 May 2005 Flight International issue)...Years before a Japanese Boeing 747 had a tail scrape. The repair of the damaged rear pressure bulkhead was botched and later when it let go, the fin exploded killing many. A Continental Boeing 777 had a tail scrape at Newark on 2 March and damaged its rear pressure bulkhead. It was dutifully relanded. Does this China Eastern Captain have amnesia, or is he so poorly trained to take decision?
  4. We could think the previous examples are pretty scarce, but the safety literature, unfortunately, is plentiful. We could also think these events type are from rising airlines. But is British Airways a new company? Another example comes from JAPAN AIRLINES and shows the astonishing safety policy used by the company since JAL admitted safety wasn't top priority. This push the government to analyse some safety events during the previous years, which appear being not specific to the aeronautical system. But, it appears safety was jeopardized in most of the events. This pushes airlines struggling to reduce human errors.

The number of deaths recorded following aerial disasters tripled in 2005 compared to 2004. In 2005, the ICAO counted 713 deaths against 203 passengers killed in 2004, for 18 accidents aerial mortals against 9 in 2004, whereas the total world number of flights total maintained itself to about 25 millions for the two years. Regarding the passengers number inreased of 100 millions for the same period, settling to some more 2 billions in 2005.


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A last but positive comment

For every event (accident or incident) we forget the very large number of normal operations which succeed to transport the passengers or cargo to their intented destination.
In commercial aviation, the accident rate is one fatal accident for every 2 millions of departures (between 1970 and 2003, fatal accident number was divided by 6, from 3 accidents to 0,5 for every million of departures).
Nevertheless, the negative impact on public and the injured or dead passengers (as well as the people sometimes killed or injured on the ground), deserve we work hard to cut this statistic.
To end this paragraph, call in mind that one accident (commercial flight) per week is forecast in 2010. Meaning... tomorrow!


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